NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Mortgage borrowers are still falling
behind on their payments in record numbers, despite the many
foreclosure prevention efforts initiated by the government and
non-profits.
In the third quarter, 9.64% of all mortgage loans
were delinquent, according to a report released on Thursday by the
Mortgage Bankers Association. That represents 4.5 million borrowers and
is an increase from 9.24% in the prior three months.
"Despite
the recession ending in mid-summer, the decline in mortgage performance
continues," said Jay Brinkmann, MBA's chief economist. "Job losses
continue to increase and drive up delinquencies and foreclosures
because mortgages are paid with paychecks, not percentage point
increases in GDP."
The delinquency rate includes all mortgage
loans that are at least one payment past due but does not include loans
in some stage of foreclosure.
The combined percentage of loans in
foreclosure or at least one payment past due was 14.41% on a
non-seasonally adjusted basis, the highest ever recorded in the MBA
delinquency survey.
Worst-hit states
California,
Florida, Arizona and Nevada continue to account for the lion's share of
the foreclosure problem; the four represented 44% of all homes
beginning the foreclosure process during the quarter.
One reason
for the high rate is number of prime loans that went bad there. Many of
these were option-ARMs, loans where borrowers had the choice of making
minimum payments that did not even offset the interest being
accumulated. For most option-ARM borrowers, mortgage balances grow
rather than decrease.
At some point, usually when the accumulated
debt reaches 10% to 25% more than the original principal, the loans get
recast into fully amortizing, fixed rate mortgages. And when that
happens, many borrowers simply cannot afford the new payments.
In California, 28.8% of all prime ARM loans were delinquent. Many of those were option ARMs.
Nationally,
26.6% of all prime ARMs were in foreclosure. That compared with 25.2%
of all subprime ARMs and was the first time ever that a prime loan
category performed worse than a subprime loan category, according to
Brinkmann.
The future of FHA
The
market share of FHA loans, which are backed by the government, has
grown exponentially over the past three years. As a result, the
performance of these mortgages has come under scrutiny by politicians
and others afraid that taxpayers are on the hook for big losses if the
loans fail.
According to the report, delinquencies for all FHA
loans stood at 14.36% at the end of September, with another 11.99%
either in foreclosure or 90+ days past due. That is actually a slight
improvement over the previous quarterly, when the delinquency rate was
14.42%.
Brinkmann contended that FHA loans should perform
relatively well over the next few years. For one thing, the FHA
terminated programs that allowed borrowers to obtain third-party
down-payment assistance. A high percentage of FHA loans that defaulted
in the past came through that program.
Secondly, so many FHA
loans are of such recent vintage that the values of their collateral,
the homes, has not decreased as much as the collateral value of many
older loans.
"Many of these loans were issued at the bottom of
the price cycle," said Brinkmann. "There will not be as many defaults
based on a lack of home equity."
He added that FHA defaults have,
historically, been linked closely to economic conditions. Many FHA
borrowers are entry level and first-time homebuyers, ones just starting
out in life.
These homeowners often have shorter work histories
and may be more adversely affected by layoffs. But Brinkmann believes
the worst of the layoffs are behind us, so the new FHA borrowers may
not suffer as many layoffs as has occurred over the past two years.
Recovery time
As
the economy recovers, delinquencies will fall, but Brinkmann said it
will take longer than the usual six months lag between an up-tick in
hiring and a down-tick in delinquencies.
"With the big decrease
in home prices, I see a lengthening of the process," he said.
"Delinquencies will stay persistently higher than we've seen with most
recoveries."
It could be a year or more after the unemployment
rate stats to drop that the delinquency rate starts to improve. That
may not be until at least mid 2011.