The recent spike in the number of delinquent Federal Housing
Administration-insured loans has some people worried that taxpayers will
eventually have to bail the agency out.
Seriously delinquent FHA
loans, those 90 days or more late, jumped 62.1% in the past year to
558,944, or 9.4% of FHA loans, as of the end of January, according to
agency statistics released on Friday.
The FHA, however, insists its finances are sound. Its loan portfolio
actually performed better than most mortgage products, according to
David Stevens, the agency's commissioner.
"The FHA default rates
are increasing at a slower rate than even prime mortgages," he said.
But
the reason for this increase may be more of a statistical glitch than
an actual trend. Loans that go into the seriously delinquent bucket stay
there far longer, boosting the numbers and making comparisons
problematic, said Jay Brinkmann, chief economist for the Mortgage
Bankers Association (MBA).
Many lenders and servicers are overwhelmed by sheer volume of loans and
are reluctant to take back homes they don't think they can sell. As
result, they keep the loans hanging out in the 90-day late bin rather
than moving them into foreclosure.
Lenders are also trying to modify more mortgages, which can take
months to accomplish. Meantime, many of the borrowers sit in the
seriously delinquent bucket.
In contrast, loans that are 30- or
60-days late actually declined in the past year, according to the FHA.
Home price drops hurt
Until the
mortgage bubble burst, FHA loans made up a small portion of the housing
market. Now, the agency originates almost a third of all home loans.
That means most of the agency's notes were issued in the past three
years -- when prices were plummeting.
"There are a lot of young loans in the FHA book," said Mike
Fratantoni, vice president of Single-Family Research and Policy
Development at the MBA. "Mortgages typically hit their peak delinquency
rates two or three years after origination."
Those early years are
toughest because many borrowers have struggled to afford their homes
and their incomes have not risen enough to offset any setbacks.
Additionally,
the price drops pushed many FHA borrowers underwater. These homeowners
only had to put 3.5% down to start, so they could quickly end up owing
more than their homes were worth in places where values plummeted 20%,
30%, 40%.
Once these mortgages clear the system, the FHA
portfolio should emerge in sound condition. Recent FHA borrowers have
been of high quality; their average credit score has risen 33 points in
the 12 months through December to 694 and is up from the low 600s a few
years ago.
No policy change
Some FHA mortgages are
simply bad loans. After subprime lending froze in 2007, overly
aggressive mortgage originators, who could no longer hook up borrowers
with subprime loans, turned to FHA loans for their risky clients.
Commission
loan officers and rogue mortgage brokers pushed the envelope of who
qualified for FHA loans, according to Allen Hardester, a Columbia
Md.-based mortgage consultant. They pushed the edge on debt-to-income
ratios, credit scores and loan-to-value ratios.
"They took
advantage of lax underwriting by FHA to interpret the guidelines
broadly," he said.
The resultant delinquencies have not persuaded
FHA to impose risk-based pricing, in which borrowers pay more if they
have lower credit scores. But the FHA does now require that borrowers
with FICO scores of less than 580 put down at least 10% of the sale
price, rather than the 3.5% minimum requirement for more qualified
borrowers.
And the agency has also eliminated seller-assisted down
payment programs, which HUD has said accounts for a disproportionately
large share of FHA delinquencies.
In these transactions, sellers kick back the down payment to
homebuyers, usually through a third party. The result is that buyers
have no "skin-in-the-game," which makes the loans more attractive to
risky borrowers.
Commissioner Stevens said the FHA is on a sound
financial basis. Its primary reserve fund is at $32 billion, its highest
level ever. There's a secondary reserve that has fallen below its
mandated level, but the FHA has taken steps to boost it. It recently
asked Congress to increase the monthly fees it charges borrowers to
insure their loans.
"Given the environment, the FHA has made very
responsible changes to its underwriting," said Fratantoni.